Suicide and non-suicide mortality and associated risk factors among suicide attempters: A 10-year follow-up of a large cohort in rural China

Previous suicide attempt is a strong risk factor for subsequent suicide and other causes of mortality, but evidence from China is sparse. In this study, follow up face-to-face interviews were conducted with suicide attempters or a key informant, and any subsequent deaths were examined through local cause-of-death censoring databases to ascertain details surrounding the death. Competitive risk models and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to ascertain significant risk factors of suicide, non-suicide and overall deaths following suicide attempt. Predictive nomograms were also constructed to predict the probability of suicide, non-suicide, and overall deaths. A total of 1103 suicide attempters were successfully interviewed with an average follow-up time of 7.48 (7.38-7.57) years. The cumulative rates of suicide at 1, 2, 3, 5 and 10 years were 0.27%, 0.63%, 0.91%, 1.56%, and 1.83%, respectively. Factors significantly associated with subsequent suicide were advancing age, history of suicide attempt, and mental disorders. Significant risk factors for non-suicide death included males, advancing age, and physical illness. Overall deaths during the follow-up period were associated with males, advancing age, physical illness, and mental disorders. Predictive models showed good ability with satisfactory C-indexes (between 0.77 and 0.86) and excellent calibration performance in predicting the varying causes of subsequent death among suicide attempters in rural China.