Seasonal ARIMA forecasting of inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan

被引:60
作者
Chen, Ching-Fu [1 ]
Chang, Yu-Hern [1 ]
Chang, Yu-Wei [1 ]
机构
[1] Natl Cheng Kung Univ, Dept Transportat & Commun Management Sci, Tainan 70101, Taiwan
来源
TRANSPORTMETRICA | 2009年 / 5卷 / 02期
关键词
air travel forecasting; Holt-Winters method; seasonal ARIMA; grey forecasting; turning point analysis; TIME-SERIES; TOURISM DEMAND; AUSTRALIA; COINTEGRATION; AGGREGATE;
D O I
10.1080/18128600802591210
中图分类号
U [交通运输];
学科分类号
08 ; 0823 ;
摘要
This article uses the Holt-Winters method, the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, and the GM(1,1) grey forecasting model to replicate monthly inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan and to compare the models' forecasting performance. It uses the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the measurement of forecast accuracy and implements turning point analysis (TPA) to compare the model performance between the direct and indirect forecast methods. Based on the out-of-sample forecasts, all fitted models have good forecasting performance in terms of the MAPE criterion, and the SARIMA model is the best one for forecasting inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan. According to the TPA results, this article supports the out-performance of the indirect forecast method.
引用
收藏
页码:125 / 140
页数:16
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