Predicting Nocturnal Hypoglycemia Using a Non-Parametric Insulin Action Model

Nocturnal hypoglycemia is a common and potentially very dangerous condition facing persons with insulin-treated diabetes. To reduce the risk of going low while sleeping, many patient wilfully elevate their glucose level before bedtime, thereby also eroding the conditions for a sound glucose control for the next day. Recent advances in sensor technology allow for real-time frequent monitoring of the glucose level, and the road map towards an artificial pancreas involves combining an insulin pump with such sensors. The first steps towards a more autonomous insulin pump have been taken by allowing the pump to suspend the insulin supply when a hypoglycemic episode is imminent. This feature relies on algorithms for predicting the nocturnal event. In this paper, we present a novel model for this purpose. In comparison to previous methods, a better trade-off between sensitivity and false alarm rate was achieved, as well as improved warning time.