A periodic mixed linear state-space model to monthly long-term temperature data

被引:4
作者
Costa, M. [1 ,2 ]
Monteiro, M. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Aveiro, Agueda Sch Technol & Management ESTGA, P-3754909 Agueda, Portugal
[2] Univ Aveiro, Ctr Res & Dev Math & Applicat CIDMA, P-3754909 Agueda, Portugal
关键词
air temperature; climate change; Kalman filter; Portuguese cities; seasonality; time series analysis; EXTREME TEMPERATURES; CLIMATE-CHANGE; KALMAN FILTER; TIME-SERIES; PORTUGAL; HOMOGENIZATION; SIMULATION; SET;
D O I
10.1002/env.2550
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
In recent decades, the world has been confronted with the consequences of global warming; however, this phenomenon is not reflected equally in every part of the globe. Thus, the warming phenomenon must be monitored in a more regional or local scale. This paper analyzes monthly long-term time series of air temperatures in three Portuguese cities: Lisbon, Oporto, and Coimbra. We propose a periodic state-space framework, associated with a suitable version of the Kalman filter; which allows for the estimation of monthly warming rates taking into account the seasonal behavior and serial correlation. Results about the monthly mean of the daily midrange temperature time series show that there are different monthly warming rates. The greatest annual mean rise was found in Oporto with 2.17 degrees C, whereas in Lisbon and Coimbra, it was respectively 0.62 degrees C and 0.55 degrees C per century.
引用
收藏
页数:15
相关论文
共 39 条
[1]   Future changes in maximum temperature using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) at selected stations of Iran [J].
Abbasnia M. ;
Toros H. .
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 2016, 2 (2)
[2]   Modeling monthly temperature data in Lisbon and Prague [J].
Alpuim, Teresa ;
El-Shaarawi, Abdel .
ENVIRONMETRICS, 2009, 20 (07) :835-852
[3]  
[Anonymous], GLOB EUR TEMP
[4]   State-space discrimination and clustering of atmospheric time series data based on Kullback information measures [J].
Bengtsson, Thomas ;
Cavanaugh, Joseph E. .
ENVIRONMETRICS, 2008, 19 (02) :103-121
[5]   Homogenization of time series from Portugal and its former colonies for the period from the late 19th to the early 21st century [J].
Bliznak, Vojtech ;
Valente, Maria Antonia ;
Bethke, Julia .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2015, 35 (09) :2400-2418
[6]   State space models with spatial deformation [J].
Castro Morales, Fidel Ernesto ;
Gamerman, Dani ;
Paez, Marina Silva .
ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS, 2013, 20 (02) :191-214
[7]  
Costa M., 2015, ADV ENVIRON RES, P203
[8]   Bias-correction of Kalman filter estimators associated to a linear state space model with estimated parameters [J].
Costa, Marco ;
Monteiro, Magda .
JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PLANNING AND INFERENCE, 2016, 176 :22-32
[9]   A non-stationary spatial model for temperature interpolation applied to the state of Rio de Janeiro [J].
Cunha, Marcelo ;
Gamerman, Dani ;
Fuentes, Montserrat ;
Paez, Marina .
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS, 2017, 66 (05) :919-939
[10]   A Reanalysis of Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Trends in New Zealand [J].
de Freitas, C. R. ;
Dedekind, M. O. ;
Brill, B. E. .
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT, 2015, 20 (04) :399-410