Modelling agricultural land abandonment in a fine spatial resolution multi-level land-use model: An application for the EU

被引:76
作者
Castillo, Carolina Perpina [1 ]
Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris [1 ]
Diogo, Vasco [2 ]
Lavalle, Carlo [1 ]
机构
[1] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr JRC, Ispra, Italy
[2] Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Zurcherstr 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
关键词
Agricultural land abandonment; Territorial modelling; EU Reference scenario; European risk map; Validation;
D O I
10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104946
中图分类号
TP39 [计算机的应用];
学科分类号
081203 ; 0835 ;
摘要
In the majority of EU Member States, agricultural land is expected to decrease not only due to land-use changes in favour of urban expansion and afforestation but also to land abandonment processes. The knowledge on location and extent of agricultural land abandonment is relevant for estimating local external effects and adapting policy interventions. Currently, multi-level land-use models are able to capture determined processes of demand-driven redevelopment. However, land abandonment is much more difficult to capture because of its more ambiguous definition and the lack of data on its spatial distribution. This paper presents a method to explicitly model agricultural abandonment as a choice of disinvestment, which in turn is embedded in a utility-based land-use modelling framework that projects land-use changes for the EU and the UK. Validation exercises using observed spatial distribution of abandoned farmland show that the proposed method allows to model abandonment with acceptable accuracy.
引用
收藏
页数:27
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