Stable oxygen isotope reconstruction of ambient temperature during the collapse of a cod (Gadus morhua) fishery

Changing environmental conditions set against a backdrop of high exploitation can result in severe consequences for commercially harvested stocks. The collapse of the Eastern Scotian Shelf cod (Gadus morhua L.) off eastern Canada was primarily due to overexploitation but may have been exacerbated by a widespread temperature decline. Recent studies have called for accurate determination of ambient temperature (the actual temperature exposure history of the fish) before discarding environmental conditions as a factor in the collapse. We used the stable oxygen isotope composition of otoliths (delta O-18(oto)) to reconstruct the ambient temperature history of Eastern Scotian Shelf cod from 1970 to 2000 in order to determine whether the stock experienced the temperature decline or shifted their distribution to avoid it. To correct delta O-18(oto) for seawater isotope content (delta O-w), we generated a new meta-equation for the relationship between delta O-18(w) (per mil) and salinity (S, in psu) on the Eastern Scotian Shelf: delta O-18(w) = 0.539 x S - 18.790. The ambient temperature series revealed that the large-scale geographic distribution of mature cod remained constant through the cooling period, although their ambient temperature was cooler than expected in warmer periods and warmer than expected in cooler periods, indicating small-scale thermoregulatory movement. Although the mean hydrographic temperature was 4 degrees C, mature cod usually inhabited the coldest available waters (mean ambient temperature = 3 degrees C), while the juveniles usually inhabited warmer waters (mean ambient temperature = 5.5 degrees C). Length-at-age was significantly related to ambient temperature, especially in the early years of growth, and therefore declining ambient temperatures were at least partially responsible for declines in asymptotic length (up to age 8 yr). The most active thermoregulatory movement occurred during a moderate warming period; therefore extreme warming events (such as those predicted under climate change) may force large-scale northward latitudinal shifts in this historically sedentary stock. Retroactive stable isotope chronologies can be an important tool in sustainable management strategies under the shifting climate conditions predicted for years to come.