Evaluating the long-term consequences of air pollution in early life: geographical correlations between coal consumption in 1951/1952 and current mortality in England and Wales

Objective To evaluate associations between early life air pollution and subsequent mortality. Design Geographical study. Setting Local government districts within England and Wales. Exposure Routinely collected geographical data on the use of coal and related solid fuels in 1951-1952 were used as an index of air pollution. Main outcome measures We evaluated the relationship between these data and both all-cause and disease- specific mortality among men and women aged 35-74 years in local government districts between 1993 and 2012. Results Domestic (household) coal consumption had the most powerful associations with mortality. There were strong correlations between domestic coal use and all-cause mortality (relative risk per SD increase in fuel use 1.124, 95% CI 1.123 to 1.126), and respiratory (1.238, 95% CI 1.234 to 1.242), cardiovascular (1.138, 95% CI 1.136 to 1.140) and cancer mortality (1.073, 95% CI 1.071 to 1.075). These effects persisted after adjustment for socioeconomic indicators in 1951, current socioeconomic indicators and current pollution levels. Conclusion Coal was the major cause of pollution in the UK until the Clean Air Act of 1956 led to a rapid decline in consumption. These data suggest that coal-based pollution, experienced over 60 years ago in early life, affects human health now by increasing mortality from a wide variety of diseases.