Individual-based models in the analysis of disease transmission in plant production chains: An application to potato brown rot

Spread of plant disease in production chains of planting material is a process of great economic importance, but has received little attention from plant disease epidemiologists. Disease control in production chains is therefore often based on rules of thumb and expert judgement by regulatory bodies, rather than on an explicit analysis and evaluation of the epidemiological and economic consequences of alternative strategies. This paper puts forward the idea that individual-based models may be used as a framework to simulate the spread of disease-causing organisms in plant production chains. The "individuals" in this context are the trading units (e.g., batches, lots) of a production chain. The quarantine disease "potato brown rot", caused by the bacterium Ralstonia solanacearum, is used as an illustrative example. The model simulates the spread of potato brown rot over all potato growing farms and fields in the Netherlands over a chosen time frame. It addresses the relevant infection pathways for this disease in potato production and is spatially explicit. Model outputs of simulations based on the control strategy as applied in the Netherlands until 2004 are presented. The effects of minor adjustments to this strategy are investigated. The simulations show an irregular pattern of brown rot dynamics in the potato production chain, as is observed in practice. Simulations quantify the relative importance of different infection pathways, and elucidate the effect of testing frequency on these pathways and on the overall brown rot incidence. The study shows that individual-based modelling (IBM) provides a powerful platform for modelling the epidemiology and impact of diseases in plant production chains. IBM can be effectively used for the analysis, evaluation and design of cost-effective disease management policies. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.