Modelling persistent stationary processes in continuous time

被引:0
作者
Jeong, Minsoo [1 ]
机构
[1] Yonsei Univ Mirae Campus, Dept Econ, Wonju 26493, Gangwon, South Korea
关键词
Persistency; Stationarity; Diffusion; Markov chain; Forecasting; VaR; REAL INTEREST-RATE; TESTS; DIFFUSIONS; VOLATILITY;
D O I
10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105776
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
This paper presents a novel approach to model continuous time processes that capture two countervailing features of many financial time series: persistency and long term stationarity. The processes introduced by our models exhibit persistent behaviors observed typically in non-stationary time series, but they remain stationary instead of tending towards explosive paths. We provide a relevant statistical theory and its implications on inference and forecasting, presenting both simulation evidence and empirical backing for the existence of, as well as the characteristic behavior for, such a series in real financial time series data.
引用
收藏
页数:12
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