High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

被引：299

作者：

Gettelman, A. ^{[1
]}

Hannay, C. ^{[1
]}

Bacmeister, J. T. ^{[1
]}

Neale, R. B. ^{[1
]}

Pendergrass, A. G. ^{[1
]}

Danabasoglu, G. ^{[1
]}

Lamarque, J-F ^{[1
]}

Fasullo, J. T. ^{[1
]}

Bailey, D. A. ^{[1
]}

Lawrence, D. M. ^{[1
]}

Mills, M. J. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2019年 / 46卷 / 14期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

climate sensitivity; climate models; WATER-VAPOR FEEDBACK; CLOUD FEEDBACKS; ICE-NUCLEATION; REACTIVE GASES; PARAMETERIZATION; AEROSOLS; IMPACT; MICROPHYSICS; SIMULATIONS; EMISSIONS;

D O I：

10.1029/2019GL083978

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3K. ECS is an emergent property of both climate feedbacks and aerosol forcing. The increase in ECS over the previous version (CESM1) is the result of cloud feedbacks. Interim versions of CESM2 had a land model that damped ECS. Part of the ECS change results from evolving the model configuration to reproduce the long-term trend of global and regional surface temperature over the twentieth century in response to climate forcings. Changes made to reduce sensitivity to aerosols also impacted cloud feedbacks, which significantly influence ECS. CESM2 simulations compare very well to observations of present climate. It is critical to understand whether the high ECS, outside the best estimate range of 1.5-4.5K, is plausible.

引用

页码：8329 / 8337

页数：9

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