Food insecurity as a determinant of international migration: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we examined how food insecurity can affect international migration aspirations and subsequent actions taken in preparation to move internationally from Sub-Saharan Africa. Drawing on a conceptual framework of the determinants of migration, we developed a three-stage regression model and tested it using data from the 2014 Gallup World Poll. The results indicate that multiple determinants play different roles in the migration decision process, which is characterized by aspirations, planning and final decision to migrate. Specifically, food insecurity is an important determinant of both the desire and the decision to migrate: food insecurity raises the probability of desiring to migrate internationally, with the probability of the desire increasing along with the severity of food insecurity. However, the probability of actually deciding to migrate internationally decreased as food insecurity worsened. These findings are in line with migration literature stating that the very poor, despite wishing to migrate, face tremendous constraints in transforming this desire into concrete decisions. Our results suggest that removing or reducing constraints to migration will benefit the poorest/most food insecure and highlight the need for an increased and effective coordination between food security and international migration policy agendas.