Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old

被引：111

作者：

van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^{[1
,2
]}

Carter, Timothy R. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bilthoven, Netherlands

[2] Univ Utrecht, Dept Geosci, Utrecht, Netherlands

[3] Finnish Environm Inst SYKE, Climate Change Programme, Helsinki, Finland

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2014年 / 122卷 / 03期

关键词：

IMPACTS; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1007/s10584-013-0974-2

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs. Next, it compares projected atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and climate characteristics for SRES and RCPs. Finally, it uses the new scenarios matrix architecture to match SRES scenarios to combinations of RCPs and SSPs, resulting in four suggestions of suitable combinations, mapping: (i) an A2 world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP3, (ii) a B2 (or A1B) world onto RCP 6.0 and SSP2, (iii) a B1 world onto RCP 4.5 and SSP1, and (iv) an A1FI world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP5. A few other variants are also explored. These mappings, though approximate, may assist analysts in reconciling earlier scenarios with the new scenario framework.

引用

页码：415 / 429

页数：15

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