Future Prospects for Electric Vehicles

In this paper, we predicted the number of electric vehicles of a certain brand and the proportion of electric vehicles in Korea to the total number of cars. First, we predicted the sale of a brand of electric vehicles (EV) in the next few years based on the Grey Prediction GM (1, 1) in term of the historical data. We also built a model of quantitative prediction of charging stations based on the daily charging demand of EV and the aggregate demand of charging stations. We used it to calculate the number of public charging stations when all the passenger vehicles turn to electric vehicles. Second, we predicted electric vehicle ownership on basis of the Bass model. We used Lagrange difference method to predict the quantity of cars as an important parameter of market potential. We got the proportion of electric cars in the coming a few decades. Thus, we expected that South Korea will be fully electrified by 2035.