Effects of Climate Change on Trait-Based Dynamics of a Top Predator in Freshwater Ecosystems

被引:42
作者
Vindenes, Yngvild [1 ]
Edeline, Eric [2 ]
Ohlberger, Jan [1 ]
Langangen, Oystein [1 ]
Winfield, Ian J. [3 ]
Stenseth, Nils C. [1 ]
Vollestad, L. Asbjorn
机构
[1] Univ Oslo, CEES, Dept Biosci, POB 1066, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway
[2] Univ Paris 06, Unite Mixte Rech 7618 Biochim & Ecol Milieux Cont, F-75230 Paris 05, France
[3] Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lake Ecosyst Grp, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
climate change; structured populations; integral projection model; Esox lucius; stochastic dynamics; temperature-size rule; INTEGRAL PROJECTION MODELS; ESOX-LUCIUS L; BODY-SIZE; DENSITY-DEPENDENCE; POPULATION-SIZE; PIKE; TEMPERATURE; WINDERMERE; RESPONSES; GROWTH;
D O I
10.1086/674610
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
Predicted universal responses of ectotherms to climate warming include increased maximum population growth rate and changes in body size through the temperature-size rule. However, the mechanisms that would underlie these predicted responses are not clear. Many studies have focused on proximate mechanisms of physiological processes affecting individual growth. One can also consider ultimate mechanisms involving adaptive explanations by evaluating temperature effects on different vital rates across the life history and using the information in a population dynamical model. Here, we combine long-term data for a top predator in freshwater ecosystems (pike; Esox lucius) with a stochastic integral projection model to analyze concurrent effects of temperature on vital rates, body size, and population dynamics. As predicted, the net effect of warming on population growth rate (fitness) is positive, but the thermal sensitivity of this rate is highly size- and vital rate--dependent. These results are not sensitive to increasing variability in temperature. Somatic growth follows the temperature-size rule, and our results support an adaptive explanation for this response. The stable length structure of the population shifts with warming toward an increased proportion of medium-sized but a reduced proportion of small and large individuals. This study highlights how demographic approaches can help reveal complex underlying mechanisms for population responses to warming.
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页码:243 / 256
页数:14
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