ZIP Code-Level Estimation of Air Quality and Health Risk Due toParticulate Matter Pollution in New York City

Exposure to PM2.5is associated with hundreds ofpremature mortalities every year in New York City (NYC).Current air quality and health impact assessment tools providecounty-wide estimates but are inadequate for assessing healthbenefits at neighborhood scales, especially for evaluating policyoptions related to energy efficiency or climate goals. We developeda new ZIP Code-Level Air Pollution Policy Assessment (ZAPPA)tool for NYC by integrating two reduced form models???Community Air Quality Tools (C-TOOLS) and the Co-BenefitsRisk Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool(COBRA)???that propagate emissions changes to estimate airpollution exposures and health benefits. ZAPPA leverages custom higher resolution inputs for emissions, health incidences, andpopulation. It, then, enables rapid policy evaluation with localized ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA)-level analysis of potential healthand monetary benefits stemming from air quality management decisions. We evaluated the modeled 2016 PM2.5values againstobserved values at EPA and NYCCAS monitors,finding good model performance (FAC2, 1; NMSE, 0.05). We, then, appliedZAPPA to assess PM2.5reduction-related health benefits fromfive illustrative policy scenarios in NYC focused on (1) commercialcooking, (2) residential and commercial building fuel regulations, (3)fleet electrification, (4) congestion pricing in Manhattan, and(5) these four combined as a"citywide sustainable policy implementation"scenario. The citywide scenario estimates an averagereduction in PM2.5of 0.9 mu g/m3. This change translates to avoiding 210-475 deaths, 340 asthma emergency department visits, andmonetized health benefits worth $2B to $5B annually, with significant variation across NYC's 192 ZCTAs. ZCTA-level assessmentscan help prioritize interventions in neighborhoods that would see the most health benefits from air pollution reduction. ZAPPA canprovide quantitative insights on health and monetary benefits for future sustainability policy development in NYC.