Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Mass Changes in Himalayan Glaciated Region from EOF Analyses of GRACE Data

The nature of hydrological seasonality over the Himalayan Glaciated Region (HGR) is complex due to varied precipitation patterns. The present study attempts to exemplify the spatio-temporal variation of hydrological mass over the HGR using time-variable gravity from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite for the period of 2002-2016 on seasonal and interannual timescales. The mass signal derived from GRACE data is decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), allowing us to identify the three broad divisions of HGR, i.e., western, central, and eastern, based on the seasonal mass gain or loss that corresponds to prevailing climatic changes. Further, causative relationships between climatic variables and the EOF decomposed signals are explored using the Granger causality algorithm. It appears that a causal relationship exists between total precipitation and total water storage from GRACE. EOF modes also indicate certain regional anomalies such as the Karakoram mass gain, which represents ongoing snow accumulation. Our causality result suggests that the excessive snowfall in 2005-2008 has initiated this mass gain. However, as our results indicate, despite the dampening of snowfall rates after 2008, mass has been steadily increasing in the Karakorum, which is attributed to the flattening of the temperature anomaly curve and subsequent lower melting after 2008.