Fuzzy inference to risk assessment on nuclear engineering systems

被引:106
作者
Ferreira Guimaraes, Antonio Cesar [1 ]
Franklin Lapa, Celso Marcelo [1 ]
机构
[1] Inst Engn Nucl, Reactor Div, BR-21945970 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
关键词
FMEA; fuzzy logic; expert opinion; risk;
D O I
10.1016/j.asoc.2005.06.002
中图分类号
TP18 [人工智能理论];
学科分类号
081104 ; 0812 ; 0835 ; 1405 ;
摘要
This paper presents a nuclear case study, in which a fuzzy inference system (FIS) is used as alternative approach in risk analysis. The main objective of this study is to obtain an understanding of the aging process of an important nuclear power system and how it affects the overall plant safety. This approach uses the concept of a pure fuzzy logic system where the fuzzy rule base consists of a collection of fuzzy IF - THEN rules. The fuzzy inference engine uses these fuzzy IF - THEN rules to determine a mapping from fuzzy sets in the input universe of discourse to fuzzy sets in the output universe of discourse based on fuzzy logic principles. The risk priority number (RPN), a traditional analysis parameter, was calculated and compared to fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) using scores from expert opinion to probabilities of occurrence, severity and not detection. A standard four-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR) containment cooling system (CCS) was used as example case. The results demonstrated the potential of the inference system for subsiding the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) in aging studies. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:17 / 28
页数:12
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