Simulating monthly streamflow for the Upper Changjiang, China, under climatic change scenarios

The potential effect of climatic change on the flow of the Upper Changjiang (or Yangtze River) above the Three Gorges, China, was simulated with the SLURP hydrological model, using ERA40 data from 1961-1990 to simulate the baseline streamflow, and employing scenario temperature and precipitation changes depicted by two global climate models: the Hadley Centre and the Canadian climate model (CCCma) for both the B2 scenario ( moderate emission of greenhouse gases) and the A2 scenario ( more intense emission), for the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 time horizons. In general, temperature and precipitation changes are more pronounced for the latter than for the former period. Winter low flows will not change but summer high flow may be augmented by increased precipitation. By mid-century, temperature increase will reduce streamflow according to CCCma, but not so under the Hadley Centre scenario. By the end of the century, precipitation will be great enough to overcome the influence of warming to raise discharge from most parts of the basin. The Min and the Jinsha rivers warrant much attention, the former because of its large flow contribution and the latter because of its sensitivity to climate forcing.