IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

被引：0

作者：

O'Neill, Brian C. ^{[1
]}

Oppenheimer, Michael ^{[2
,3
]}

Warren, Rachel ^{[4
]}

Hallegatte, Stephane ^{[5
]}

Kopp, Robert E. ^{[6
,7
]}

Poertner, Hans O. ^{[8
]}

Scholes, Robert ^{[9
]}

Birkmann, Joern ^{[10
]}

Foden, Wendy ^{[11
]}

Licker, Rachel ^{[2
,3
]}

Mach, Katharine J. ^{[12
]}

Marbaix, Phillippe ^{[13
]}

Mastrandrea, Michael D. ^{[12
]}

Price, Jeff ^{[4
]}

Takahashi, Kiyoshi ^{[14
]}

van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal ^{[13
]}

Yohe, Gary ^{[15
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80305 USA

[2] Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[3] Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[4] Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[5] World Bank, Climate Change Grp, Washington, DC 20433 USA

[6] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Rutgers Energy Inst, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA

[7] Rutgers State Univ, Inst Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA

[8] Alfred Wegener Inst, Marine Biol Ecol & Evolutionary Physiol, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany

[9] Univ Witwatersrand, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa

[10] Univ Stuttgart, Inst Spatial & Reg Planning, D-70569 Stuttgart, Germany

[11] Univ Stellenbosch, Dept Bot & Zool, Stellenbosch, South Africa

[12] Carnegie Inst Sci, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[13] Catholic Univ Louvain, Earth & Life Inst, B-1348 Louvain La Neuve, Belgium

[14] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

[15] Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA

来源：

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | 2017年 / 7卷 / 01期

关键词：

RANGE SHIFTS; SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS; VULNERABILITY; IMPACTS; VELOCITY; TRENDS; FOOD; QUANTIFICATION; 21ST-CENTURY; MITIGATION;

D O I：

10.1038/NCLIMATE3179

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary climate change metrics to global mean temperature change and better account for possible changes in social and ecological system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios of future climatic and societal conditions.

引用

页码：28 / 37

页数：10

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