The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States

被引:193
作者
Liu, Luyu [1 ,2 ]
Miller, Harvey J. [1 ,2 ]
Scheff, Jonathan [3 ]
机构
[1] Ohio State Univ, Dept Geog, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[2] Ohio State Univ, Ctr Urban & Reg Anal, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[3] Transit App Inc, Montreal, PQ, Canada
来源
PLOS ONE | 2020年 / 15卷 / 11期
关键词
AFRICAN-AMERICANS; ACCESS;
D O I
10.1371/journal.pone.0242476
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic.
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页数:22
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