Which cardiovascular risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and predict future events in advanced age in New Zealand?

Aim To examine the relationships between cardiovascular risk factors, cardiovascular health at baseline, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events 28 months later, in advanced age. Methods 108 adults in advanced age were recruited. Data were collected through a standardised questionnaire including a measure of physical activity, comprehensive physical assessment and fasting blood samples. CVD events at follow-up were ascertained from hospital records. Results Sixty-seven per cent of participants had CVD at baseline. Physical activity (OR (95% CI): 0.99 (0.98-1.0); P = 0.04) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (OR (95% CI): 0.3 (0.09-1.0); P = 0.046) were independently associated with CVD. The 28-month incidence rate of CVD was 6 cases/100 person-years. Baseline diastolic BP (OR (95% CI): 0.9 (0.9-1.0); P = 0.03) and waist circumference (OR (95% CI): 1.06 (1.01-1.1); P = 0.01) were independently associated with subsequent CVD events at follow-up. Conclusion Physical activity and HDL levels were inversely associated with CVD at baseline but did not predict future CVD events. CVD in advanced age warrants further investigation.