Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA

被引:99
作者
Dickson, Brett G. [1 ]
Prather, John W.
Xu, Yaguang
Hampton, Haydee M.
Aumack, Ethan N.
Sisk, Thomas D.
机构
[1] Colorado State Univ, Dept Fishery & Wildlife Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA
[2] USDA, US Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 USA
[3] No Arizona Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Educ, Lab Landscape Ecol & Conservat Biol, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
关键词
fire risk; lightning; ponderosa pine; topographic roughness; weights of evidence; wildland fire;
D O I
10.1007/s10980-005-5475-x
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
In the southwestern U.S., wildland fire frequency and area burned have steadily increased in recent decades, a pattern attributable to multiple ignition sources. To examine contributing landscape factors and patterns related to the occurrence of large (>= 20 ha in extent) fires in the forested region of northern Arizona, we assembled a database of lightning- and human-caused fires for the period 1 April to 30 September, 1986-2000. At the landscape scale, we used a weights-of-evidence approach to model and map the probability of occurrence based on all fire types (n = 203), and lightning-caused fires alone (n = 136). In total, large fires burned 101,571 ha on our study area. Fires due to lightning were more frequent and extensive than those caused by humans, although human-caused fires burned large areas during the period of our analysis. For all fires, probability of occurrence was greatest in areas of high topographic roughness and lower road density. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated forest vegetation and mean annual precipitation were less important predictors. Our modeling results indicate that seasonal large fire events are a consequence of non-random patterns of occurrence, and that patterns generated by these events may affect the regional fire regime more extensively than previously thought. Identifying the factors that influence large fires will improve our ability to target resource protection efforts and manage fire risk at the landscape scale.
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页码:747 / 761
页数:15
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