Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight

被引：52

作者：

Cunha, Miguel Pina e

Palma, Patricia

da Costa, Nuno Guimaraes

机构：

[1] Univ Nova Lisboa, Fac Econ, P-1099038 Lisbon, Portugal

[2] Inst Super Psicol Aplicada, P-1149041 Lisbon, Portugal

来源：

FUTURES | 2006年 / 38卷 / 08期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.015

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We discuss the changes occurring in the field of organizational foresight. The analysis results from viewing foresight from two different perspectives: as centered on the future or on the present; as macroscopic analysis or microscopic practice. The combination of these factors results in four different modes of organizational foresight: strategic planning, visioning, scenario thinking and planned emergence. These different perspectives are examined. We contribute to the literature by presenting foresight as a complex process, amenable to different understandings. Foresight is often portrayed as a technical and analytic process. We discuss it as a human process permeated by a dialectic between the need to know and the fear of knowing. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：942 / 955

页数：14

共 80 条

[21] Predicting a firm's forecasting ability: The roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention [J].