Is the boreal spring tropical Atlantic variability a precursor of the Equatorial Mode?

The Equatorial Mode (EM) governs the tropical Atlantic inter-annual variability during boreal summer. It has profound impacts on the climate of adjacent and remote areas. However, predicting the EM is one of the most challenging and intriguing issues for the scientific community. Recent studies have suggested a possible connection between the boreal spring Meridional Mode (MM) and the EM through ocean wave propagation. Here, we use a set of sensitivity experiments with a medium-resolution ocean model to determine the precursor role of a MM to create equatorial SST variability. Our results demonstrate that boreal summer equatorial SSTs following a MM, are subject to two counteracting effects: the local wind forcing and remotely-excited oceanic waves. For a positive MM, the anomalous easterly winds blowing along the equator, shallow the thermocline, cooling the sea surface via vertical diffusion and meridional advection. Anomalous wind curl excites a downwelling Rossby wave north of equator, which is reflected at the western boundary becoming an equatorial Kelvin wave (KW). This downwelling KW propagates eastward, deepening the thermocline and activating the thermocline feedbacks responsible for the equatorial warming. Moreover, the local wind forcing and RW-reflected mechanism have a significant and comparable impact on the equatorial SST variability. Changes in the intensity and persistence of these distinct forcings will determine the equatorial SST response during boreal summer. Our results give a step forward to the improvement of the EM predictability.