Why estimates of the impact of public opinion on public policy are too high: Empirical and theoretical implications

Statistical studies often show public opinion strongly affecting public policy. But the studies may overestimate the effect because they focus on issues - those especially important to the public - on which governments are most likely to be responsive. This article considers what the opinion-policy linkage would be if less-important issues were also considered, by examining a random sample of proposals addressed by the U.S. Congress. Opinion has considerably less impact in the random sample than in the statistical studies. But this does not mean that the public is being defeated by special interests. On many issues, the public has no meaningful opinions; organized interests, therefore, can win without the public losing.