Recent woody invasion of wetlands on the Kenai Peninsula Lowlands, south-central Alaska: a major regime shift after 18 000 years of wet Sphagnum-sedge peat recruitment

We document accelerating invasion of woody vegetation into wetlands on the western Kenai Peninsula lowlands. Historical aerial photography for 11 wetland sites showed that herbaceous area shrank 6.2%/decade from 1951 to 1968, and 11.1%/decade from 1968 to 1996. Corresponding rates for converting herbaceous area to shrubland were 11.5% and 13.7%/decade, respectively, and, for converting nonforest to forest, were 7.8% and 8.3%/decade, respectively. Black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) forests on three wetland perimeters established since the Little Ice Age concluded in the 1850s. Dwarf birch shrubs at three wetland sites showed median apparent tree-ring age of 13 years, indicating recent shrub colonization at these sites. Peat cores at 24 wetland sites (basal peat ages 1840-18 740 calibrated years before present) indicated that these peatlands originated as wet Sphagnum-sedge fens with very little woody vegetation. Local meteorological records show a 55% decline in available water since 1968, of which one-third is due to higher summer temperatures and increased evapotranspiration and two-thirds is due to lower annual precipitation. These results suggest that wet Sphagnum-sedge fens initiating since the end of the Wisconsin glaciation began to dry in the 1850s and that this drying has greatly accelerated since the 1970s.