Global changes in propagation of stationary waves in a warming scenario

An investigation of how stationary Rossby wave (SRW) propagation can change in response to the A2 climate change scenario is made using six coupled ocean-atmosphere general-circulation models (OAGCM). The simulation results for the present-day climate (1960-1990) are compared with the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF ERA-40 re-analyses. The zonal wind, the SRW kinetic energy (KE) pattern along the waveguide and the stationary wave-number are used to analyse the changes in the SRW propagation for the winter season of each hemisphere. The main result shows that in future climate (2069-2099) the SRW propagation for longer distances is unfavourable for the main waveguides in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), which is confirmed through the SRW KE decrease. A poleward shift of the subtropical jet stream in future climate is also shown by five models in the SH and by three in the NH.