An EKC-pattern in historical perspective: carbon dioxide emissions, technology, fuel prices and growth in Sweden 1870-1997

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) has been subject to research and debate since the early 1990s. This article examines the inverted-U trajectory of Swedish CO2 emissions during an extended time period beginning in 1870. The basis for the investigation is a structural time series approach that utilizes a stochastic trend as an indicator of technological and structural change, and GDP growth and changes in the price of fuel and cement price as independent variables. Finally, the development of technological and structural change with respect to CO2 emissions is interpreted within the context of growth regimes. The result suggests that the period 1920-1960, with high, sustained growth rates was associated with less technological and structural changes relating to CO2 emissions than periods with lower growth rates, such as the late 1800s and the post-1970 period. Furthermore, it is suggested that time-specific technological clusters may affect EKC patterns. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.