Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions

被引：20

作者：

Glotfelty, Timothy ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Yang ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] North Carolina State Univ, Dept Marine Earth & Atmospher Sci, Box 8208, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT | 2017年 / 152卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

CESM/CAM5; Representative concentration pathways; Global climate change; Future air quality; Climate change; Emission changes; TROPOSPHERIC OZONE; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; UNITED-STATES; MODEL EVALUATION; SURFACE OZONE; POLLUTION; MULTIMODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; SIMULATIONS; ATTRIBUTION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.12.034

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in 03, which decreases by global mean of 1.4 ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 23 ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2 mu g m(-3) under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2 mu g m(-3) under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (ADD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1 W m(-2) and 2.0 W m(-2) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2 degrees C from a global average increase of 0.7 W m(-2) in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：531 / 552

页数：22

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