Comparison of Two Prognostic Models in Patients with Metastatic Renal Cancer Treated with Sunitinib: a Retrospective, Registry-Based Study

The study aimed to compare two prognostic models in terms of progression-free survival (PFS), median overall survival (OS), and 1-year survival in patients treated first-line with sunitinib for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). Data from patients who met prognostic model criteria for recording of baseline parameters and outcomes in the Czech Patient Registry RENal Information System (RENIS) were included in the retrospective analysis (n = 495). Performance of the modified Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) model and International Database Consortium (IDC) model was compared. PFS and OS were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The statistical significance of differences in Kaplan-Meier estimates was assessed using the log-rank test. Median OS for prognostic groups according to MSKCC and IDC criteria, respectively, was 39.5 months (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 23.9-55.2) versus 44.3 months (95 % CI: 31.6-56.9) for favourable-risk patients (no adverse factors), 28.5 months (95 % CI: 20.1-36.8) versus 24.8 months (95 % CI: 19.8-29.8) for intermediate-risk patients (1-2 adverse factors), and 10.6 months (95 % CI: 6.3-14.8) versus 9.3 months (95 % CI: 5.1-13.5) for poor-risk patients (a parts per thousand yen3 adverse factors). The majority of MSKCC poor-risk patients (54.1 %, n = 72) were reclassified as intermediate-risk using IDC criteria, and 20.2 % (n = 61) of MSKCC intermediate-risk patients were reclassified to the IDC favourable-risk group. Both prognostic models were validated in the present cohort. Use of the IDC model resulted in an upward shift in prognostic assessment compared to the MSKCC model.