Artificial intelligence-based predictions of movie audiences on opening Saturday

Marketing activity by distributors is a significant factor in attracting audiences to theaters before a movie is released. Importantly, audience numbers on opening weekend are highly affected by marketing activity before the release, and these numbers determine how many screens will be allocated to the movie. Therefore, distributors need to predict audience numbers on opening weekend and develop marketing strategies in order to gain a competitive advantage over other films being screened at the same time. However, as distributors make predictions based on their experiences and intuitions, it is difficult to quantify the reliability of predicted values and deliver the correct marketing strategy. In this study, we propose a model that predicts audience numbers on the opening Saturday using market research data obtained through online and offline surveys to help distributors develop better marketing strategies. (C) 2020 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.