Will tropical mountaintop plant species survive climate change? Identifying key knowledge gaps using species distribution modelling in Australia

被引:54
作者
Costion, Craig M. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Simpson, Lalita [1 ]
Pert, Petina L. [4 ,5 ]
Carlsen, Monica M. [2 ]
Kress, W. John [2 ]
Crayn, Darren [1 ,5 ,6 ]
机构
[1] James Cook Univ, Australian Trop Herbarium, Cairns, Qld 4870, Australia
[2] Natl Museum Nat Hist, Dept Bot, Smithsonian Inst, Washington, DC 20013 USA
[3] James Cook Univ, Ctr Trop Biodivers & Climate Change, Cairns, Qld 4870, Australia
[4] CSIRO Ecosyst Sci, Cairns, Qld 4870, Australia
[5] James Cook Univ, Coll Marine & Environm Sci, Cairns, Qld 4870, Australia
[6] James Cook Univ, Ctr Trop Environm Sustainabil Sci, Cairns, Qld 4870, Australia
关键词
Cloud forest; Endemics; Threatened species; Range shifts; Acclimation; Wet Tropics; RAIN-FORESTS; RANGE SHIFTS; IMPACTS; RESPONSES; VULNERABILITY; BIODIVERSITY; TEMPERATE; DIVERSIFICATION; CONTRACTIONS; EXTINCTIONS;
D O I
10.1016/j.biocon.2015.07.022
中图分类号
X176 [生物多样性保护];
学科分类号
090705 ;
摘要
Species inhabiting tropical mountaintops may be most at risk from the detrimental effects of climate change. Yet few regional assessments have critically assessed the degree of threat to species in these habitats. Here we model under three climate scenarios the current and future suitable climate niche of 19 plant species endemic to tropical mountaintops in northeast Queensland, Australia. The suitable climate niche for each of the 19 species is predicted to decline by a minimum of 17% and maximum of 100% by 2040 (mean for all species of 81%) and minimum of 46% (mean for all species of 95%) by 2080. Seven species are predicted to have some suitable climate niche space reductions (ranging from 1 to 54% of their current suitable area) by 2080 under all three climate scenarios. Three additional species are projected to retain between 0.1 and 9% of their current distribution under one or two of the climate scenarios. In addition to these declines, which are predicted to occur over the next 30 years in northeast Queensland, we discuss and outline pressing research priorities that may be relevant for the conservation of biodiversity on tropical mountaintop environments across the globe. Specifically, further research is needed on thermal tolerances, acclimation potentials, and physiological constraints of tropical mountaintop taxa as current species distributions are primarily determined by climatic factors. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:322 / 330
页数:9
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