External validation of serum hCG cutoff levels for prediction of resistance to single-agent chemotherapy in patients with persistent trophoblastic disease

Van Trommel et al have previously shown that serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) cutoff levels can provide early prediction of resistance to first-line methotrexate (MTX) in patients with persistent trophoblastic disease (PTD). In this study, we validate this approach of prediction of resistance to single-agent chemotherapy in an independent and larger cohort of PTD patients using a different hCG assay. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed to determine hCG cutoff levels and sensitivity between patients cured on single-agent chemotherapy (control group) and patients requiring change to combination chemotherapy (study group). Receiver operating characteristics analysis identified an hCG cutoff value of 737 IUI(-1) that enabled us to predict the subsequent development of single-agent chemotherapy resistance in 52% of patients before their fourth MTX course at 97.5% specificity. This would have enabled an earlier switch to combination chemotherapy reducing the MTX exposure by an average of 2.5 courses. The present findings confirm that serum hCG cutoff levels predict resistance to single-agent therapy earlier than traditional methods. Change to combination chemotherapy should be considered for patients whose serum hCG levels exceed these hCG cutoff values. For patients not exceeding the hCG cutoff levels, static or rising hCG levels should still be included in the criteria for change of chemotherapy.