Forecasting the airborne spread of Mycosphaerella fijiensis, a cause of black Sigatoka disease on banana:: estimations of numbers of perithecia and ascospores

Banana leaves showing different levels of black Sigatoka disease were collected from an unsprayed plantation in Costa Rica during two separate periods representing the wet to dry season transition (October 1993 - February 1994) and the dry to wet season transition (April - September 1995). Laboratory studies were used to investigate the relationship between the release of Mycosphaerella fijiensis ascospores and the amount of inoculum on banana plants showing different levels of infection, as assessed by leaf necrotic area. The number of perithecia present in the necrotic area was used as an indication of potential ascospore loads and was investigated as a series of regression equations. A series of rewetting and incubation regimes was used to investigate spore release under field conditions (21 degrees C and 100% relative humidity in the early morning and 28 degrees C, 60% relative humidity on days when it rained in mid-afternoon). Results suggest that rainfall, combined with a high temperature, may lead to peaks of ascospore release but without necessarily increasing overall numbers released over periods of up to 4 days and that a high level of spore release was less sensitive to changes in temperature once it had been initiated. The exact role of temperature in spore release is still unclear, however, as leaf samples kept at atypically low temperatures also released non-germinating ascospores. An average of 4.5 ascospores was released per perithecium. This does not resolve ambiguities in the literature regarding the number of ascospores present in each perithecium. A linear model relating the average ascospore numbers and necrotic area, using quick estimates of the amounts of necrotic area on the leaves of a random sample of plants across a plantation, is proposed, to give an indication of the relative amount of airborne inoculum potentially available between different plantations.