World peak potash: An analytical study

Global economic development could be constrained by the availability of potash. While food demand is expected to double by 2050, many of the essential resources that support food production are becoming increasingly scarce, including potash. Since potash availability is a critical element in food security and large reserves are concentrated in only a few countries, a shortage of potash could result in a low agricultural productivity that, in many cases, may cause undernourishment and in extreme cases, famine. Based on a conceptual analysis that uses the logistic Hubbert models, the purpose of this paper is to asses the perspective of sustainability of world potash reserves and to determine the exact timing of the potash peak which is used as an early warning for policy makers to prepare society for declining future supplies. The results of the paper showed that peak potash could be imminent in 2057. The peak years and the forecasted peak productions for Canada, Belarus, Russia, Jordan and Israel were estimated at (2042, 16.0M0, (2040, 13.5M0, (2073, 21M0, (2056, 3.1Mt) and (2045, 3.5M0 respectively. Countries like Germany and USA have already passed their peak production in 1980 and 1968 respectively. Using different reserves assumptions, the maximum peak years varied from 2029 to 2095. In order to achieve potash security in the long term, it will require an integrated approach that might range from shifting diets, to developing markets for renewable potash fertilisers sourced from excreta, manure and food waste.