The Half-Cycle Correction: Banish Rather Than Explain It

被引：44

作者：

Barendregt, Jan J. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Queensland, Sch Populat Hlth, Herston, Qld 4006, Australia

来源：

MEDICAL DECISION MAKING | 2009年 / 29卷 / 04期

基金：

澳大利亚国家健康与医学研究理事会;

关键词：

Markov Models; mathematical models and decision analysis; statistical methods;

D O I：

10.1177/0272989X09340585

中图分类号：

R19 [保健组织与事业（卫生事业管理）];

学科分类号：

摘要：

The half-cycle correction is often used in discrete Markov models to estimate state membership. This article shows that the correction, in addition to being unintuitive, actually produces the wrong results in many circumstances. These include quality-adjusted life year (QALY) weights and unit costs that differ by cycle. The half-cycle correction is also incompatible with discounting of the obtained stream of state membership. It is furthermore shown that the life table method of estimating state membership obtains correct results under these circumstances and is also much more transparent. The article concludes that the half-cycle correction should be dropped in favor of the life table method.

引用

页码：500 / 502

页数：3