Study on the Earthquake Casualty Estimation based on Monte-Carlo Simulation Method

In 20th century and in early 21st century, there were some massive earthquakes in China. In order to make arrangement and deployment plan during post-earthquake relief work, the reliable earthquake death toll estimation is very valuable for disaster relief headquarters and civil administration departments. In this study, two aspects of the casualty estimation have been conducted. First, a casualty prediction system for earthquake based on GIS has been developed. Basic maps, primary data, critical infrastructure data, utility databases, asset databases, et. al. are collected as the inputs and parameters in the system. The building collapse probability with reasonable interval was given based on its vulnerability matrix. The prediction system can produce the casualty results with reasonable range. Second, a dynamic model for assessing seismic casualties is introduced, and Monte-Carlo numerical simulation method was used to investigate the deterioration of the trapped survivors' health condition over the trapped time, which may be important and useful in directing the rescue activities.