Using Copulas to Evaluate Rationality of Rainfall Spatial Distribution in a Design Storm

被引:4
作者
Wang, Leizhi [1 ,2 ]
Hu, Qingfang [1 ]
Wang, Yintang [1 ]
Zhu, Zhenduo [3 ]
Li, Lingjie [1 ]
Liu, Yong [1 ]
Cui, Tingting [1 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[2] Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[3] SUNY Buffalo, Dept Civil Struct & Environm Engn, Buffalo, NY 14220 USA
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Copula function; flood control planning; extreme rainfall; conditional probability; Tai Lake Basin; design storm; VARIABILITY; RISK;
D O I
10.3390/w10060758
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
In the absence of long-series streamflow records in plain areas, design storm, which serves as the most important input in a hydrologic model, plays an important role in flood control and water resources management. For a large drainage basin, design storm may be estimated for sub-basins separately; thus the spatial distribution of design storm needs to be carefully treated. However, few studies have been carried out to evaluate the rationality of the spatial distribution in a design storm, which means the storm over space should be in accordance with actual needs or its distributing patterns. Taking the Tai Lake Basin (TLB), 3-d Copula-based models combining extreme rainfall of different sub-basins were built using long-term rainfall data, and conditional probabilities of sub-basins encountering certain amounts of rainfall were investigated to evaluate the rationality of the design storm. Results show that the spatial distribution of the design storm based on a typical year is hardly rational, in which rainfall of the northeastern part of the basin is suggested to be weakened while in the southwest to be strengthened; after the rainfall is redistributed based on long-term information, it shows a better rationality of spatial distribution. Such information provides valuable significance in guiding flood control of TLB, and the considered evaluating method can be used for similar basins in plain areas.
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页数:14
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