Optimal Hydropower Generation Under Climate Change Conditions for a Northern Water Resources System

被引:27
作者
Haguma, Didier [1 ]
Leconte, Robert [1 ]
Cote, Pascal [2 ]
Krau, Stephane [1 ]
Brissette, Francois [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, PQ J1K 2R1, Canada
[2] Rio Tinto Alcan, Jonquiere, PQ G7S 4R5, Canada
[3] Ecole Technol Super, Montreal, PQ H3C 1K3, Canada
基金
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词
Hydrologic regime; Climate change; Water resources system; Operating policy; ATHABASCA CATCHMENT; HYDROLOGICAL MODEL; CHANGE IMPACTS; PRECIPITATION; OPTIMIZATION; OPERATION; ENSEMBLE; PEACE; DELTA; SDP;
D O I
10.1007/s11269-014-0763-3
中图分类号
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号
0813 ;
摘要
This paper examines climate change impacts on the water resources system of the Manicouagan River (Qu,bec, Canada). The objective is to evaluate the performance of existing infrastructures under future climate projections and the associated uncertainties. The main purpose of the water resources system is hydropower production. A reservoir optimization algorithm, Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SSDP), was used to derive weekly operating decisions for the existing system subject to reservoir inflows reflecting future climate, for optimum hydropower production. These projections are simulations from the SWAT hydrologic model for climate change scenarios for the period from 2010 to 2099. Results show that the climate change will alter the hydrological regime of the study area: earlier timing of the spring flood, reduced spring peak flow, and increased annual inflows volume in the future compared to the historical climate. The SSDP optimization algorithm adapted the operating policy to the future hydrological regime by adjusting water reservoir levels in the winter and spring, and increasing the release through turbines, which in the end increased power generation. However, there could be more unproductive spills for some power plants, which would decrease the overall efficiency of the existing water resources system.
引用
收藏
页码:4631 / 4644
页数:14
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