Seismicity and seismic hazard assessment for greater Tehran region using Gumbel first asymptotic distribution

Considering the history of severe earthquakes and the presence of active faults in the greater Tehran region, the possibility of a destructive earthquake occurring is high and seismic hazard analysis is crucial. Gumbel distributions are commonly-used statistical distributions in earthquake engineering and seismology. Their main advantage is their basis on the largest earthquake magnitudes selected from an equal-time predefined set. In this study, the first asymptotic distribution of extremes is used to estimate seismicity parameters and peak ground acceleration (PGA). By assuming a Poisson distribution for the earthquakes, after estimation of seismicity parameters, the mean return period and the probable maximum magnitude within a given time interval are obtained. A maximum probable magnitude of 7.0 has a mean return period of 100 years in this region. For a return period of 475 years, the PGA in the greater Tehran region is estimated to be 0.39g to 0.42g, depending on local site conditions. This value is greater than that of the Iranian Code for Seismic Design of Buildings, indicating that a revision of the code is necessary.