Modeling and Predicting Dengue Incidence in Highly Vulnerable Countries using Panel Data Approach

被引：9

作者：

Anwar, Asim ^{[1
]}

Khan, Noman ^{[1
]}

Ayub, Muhammad ^{[1
]}

Nawaz, Faisal ^{[1
,2
]}

Shah, Asim ^{[1
]}

Flahault, Antoine ^{[3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] COMSATS Univ Islamabad, Dept Management Sci, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan

[2] Ton Duc Thang Univ, Fac Finance & Banking, Ho Chi Minh City 758307, Vietnam

[3] Swiss Sch Publ Hlth SSPH, Hirschengraben 82, CH-8001 Zurich, Switzerland

[4] Univ Geneva, Fac Med, Inst Global Hlth, CH-1202 Geneva, Switzerland

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH | 2019年 / 16卷 / 13期

关键词：

climate change; dengue; panel fixed effect model; vulnerable countries; METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS; FEVER INCIDENCE; GUANGZHOU; TEMPERATURE; CHINA; TRANSMISSION; ASSOCIATION; CLIMATE;

D O I：

10.3390/ijerph16132296

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The spread of dengue has become a major public health concern in recent times due to alarming climate change. Using country level panel data over the 2000-2017 period, this paper examines the effects of climate change and socio-economic variables on the incidence of dengue-borne diseases in some of the most highly vulnerable countries. Empirical analysis shows a positive association between climate change and socio-economic conditions in the advent of dengue-borne diseases. We find that climate change, as measured by temperature, is proactively contributing to the spread of dengue-borne diseases. However, redressing the contributive factor behind climate change, via better awareness through education and improved public health facilitation, can assist in managing the occurrences and spread of dengue-borne diseases.

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