Estimating PM2.5 speciation concentrations using prototype 4.4 km-resolution MISR aerosol properties over Southern California

Research efforts to better characterize the differential toxicity of PM2.5 (particles with aerodynamic diameters less than or equal to 2.5 mu m) speciation are often hindered by the sparse or non-existent coverage of ground monitors. The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aboard NASA's Terra satellite is one of few satellite aerosol sensors providing information of aerosol shape, size and extinction globally for a long and continuous period that can be used to estimate PM2.5 speciation concentrations since year 2000. Currently, MISR only provides a 17.6 km product for its entire mission with global coverage every 9 days, a bit too coarse for air pollution health effects research and to capture local spatial variability of PM2.5 speciation. In this study, generalized additive models (GAMs) were developed using MISR prototype 4.4 km-resolution aerosol data with meteorological variables and geographical indicators, to predict ground-level concentrations of PM2.5 sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) in Southern California between 2001 and 2015 at the daily level. The GAMs are able to explain 66%, 62%, 55% and 58% of the daily variability in PM2.5 sulfate, nitrate, OC and EC concentrations during the whole study period, respectively. Predicted concentrations capture large regional patterns as well as fine gradients of the four PM2.5 species in urban areas of Los Angeles and other counties, as well as in the Central Valley. This study is the first attempt to use MISR prototype 4.4 km-resolution AOD (aerosol optical depth) components data to predict PM2.5 sulfate, nitrate, OC and EC concentrations at the sub-regional scale. In spite of its low temporal sampling frequency, our analysis suggests that the MISR 4.4 km fractional AODs provide a promising way to capture the spatial hotspots and long-term temporal trends of PM2.5 speciation, understand the effectiveness of air quality controls, and allow our estimated PM2.5 speciation data to be linked with common spatial units such as census tract or zip code in epidemiological studies. This modeling strategy needs to be validated in other regions when more MISR 4.4 km data becoming available in the future.