In spontaneous intracerebral hematoma patients, prediction of the hematoma expansion risk and mortality risk using radiological and clinical markers and a newly developed scale

Objective: In patients with spontaneous intracerebral hematoma (ICH), early-stage hematoma expansion has been associated with poor prognosis in literature. This study aimed to develop predictive parameter(s) as well as a new scale to define hematoma expansion and short-term prognosis in patients with ICH. Methods: In 46 patients with ICH, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores, non-contrast CT (NCCT) markers (hematoma volume on admission and follow-up, hypodensity, intraventricular hemorrhage, blend and island sign, BAT score), and modified Rankin Scale scores were evaluated for predicting the hematoma expansion risk and mortality risk. Furthermore, a newly developed scale called the 'HEMRICH scale' was constituted using the GCS score, hematoma volumes, and some NCCT markers. Results: Roc-Curve and Logistic Regression test results revealed that GCS score, initial hematoma volume value, hypodensity, intraventricular haemorrhage, BAT score, and HEMRICH scale score could be the best markers in predicting hematoma expansion risk whereas GCS score, intraventricular haemorrhage, BAT score, hematoma expansion, and HEMRICH scale score could be the best markers in predicting mortality risk (p = 0.01). Moreover, Factor analysis and Reliability test results showed that HEMRICH scale score could predict both hematoma expansion and mortality risks validly (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test value = 0.729) and reliably (Cronbach's alpha = 0.564). Conclusion: It was concluded that the GCS score, intraventricular haemorrhage, and BAT score could predict both hematoma expansion risk and mortality risk in the early stage in patients with ICH. Furthermore, it was suggested that the newly produced HEMRICH scale could be a valid and reliable scale for predicting both hematoma expansion and mortality risk.