Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis

被引：705

作者：

Daim, Tugrul U. ^{[1
]}

Rueda, Guillenno ^{[1
]}

Martin, Hilary ^{[1
]}

Gerdsri, Pisek ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Portland State Univ, Maseeh Coll Engn & Comp Sci, Dept Engn & Technol Management, Portland, OR 97207 USA

来源：

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 2006年 / 73卷 / 08期

关键词：

58;

D O I：

10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.004

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：981 / 1012

页数：32