Mathematical analysis of the effects of controls on transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

COVID-19, an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), starting from Wuhan city of China, plagued the world in the later part of 2019. We developed a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of the disease with two categories of the Susceptibles (ie Immigrant Susceptibles and Local Susceptible). The model is shown to have a globally stable disease-free equilibrium point whenever the basic reproduction number R-0 is less than unity. The endemic equilibrium is also shown to be globally stable for R-0 > 1 under some conditions. The spread of the disease is also shown to be highly sensitive to use of PPEs and personal hygiene (d), transmission probability (beta), average number of contacts of infected person per unit time (day) (c), the rate at which the exposed develop clinical symptoms (delta) and the rate of recovery (rho). Numerical simulation of the model is also done to illustrate the analytical results established. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University.