A Humanized Clinically Calibrated Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model for Hypokinetic Motor Symptoms in Parkinson's Disease

The current treatment of Parkinson's disease with dopamine-centric approaches such as L-DOPA and dopamine agonists, although very successful, is in need of alternative treatment strategies, both in terms of disease modification and symptom management. Various non-dopaminergic treatment approaches did not result in a clear clinical benefit, despite showing a clear effect in preclinical animal models. In addition, polypharmacy is common, sometimes leading to unintended effects on non motor cognitive and psychiatric symptoms. To explore novel targets for symptomatic treatment and possible synergistic pharmacodynamic effects between different drugs, we developed a computer-based Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) platform of the closed cortico-striatal-thalamic-cortical basal ganglia loop of the dorsal motor circuit. This mechanism-based simulation platform is based on the known neuroanatomy and neurophysiology of the basal ganglia and explicitly incorporates domain expertise in a formalized way. The calculated beta/gamma power ratio of the local field potential in the subthalamic nucleus correlates well (R-2 = 0.71) with clinically observed extra-pyramidal symptoms triggered by antipsychotics during schizophrenia treatment (43 drug-dose combinations). When incorporating Parkinsonian (PD) pathology and reported compensatory changes, the computer model suggests a major increase in b/g ratio (corresponding to bradykinesia and rigidity) from a dopamine depletion of 70% onward. The correlation between the outcome of the QSP model and the reported changes in UPDRS III Motor Part for 22 placebo-normalized drug-dose combinations is R-2 = 0.84. The model also correctly recapitulates the lack of clinical benefit for perampanel, MK-0567 and flupirtine and offers a hypothesis for the translational disconnect. Finally, using human PET imaging studies with placebo response, the computer model predicts well the placebo response for chronic treatment, but not for acute treatment in PD.