Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran, 2025

被引：75

作者：

Mirzaei, Maryam ^{[1
]}

Bekri, Mahmoud ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Multimedia Univ, Dept Banking & Finance, Cyberjaya, Malaysia

[2] Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Econ & Stat Inst, Karlsruhe, Germany

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH | 2017年 / 154卷

关键词：

System dynamics model; Energy consumption; Emission reduction; Scenario analysis; SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; CARBON EMISSIONS; INCOME; TRADE; RISK; INDUSTRY; IMPACT; CHINA;

D O I：

10.1016/j.envres.2017.01.023

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO2 emission trends for Iran over 2000-2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985 million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO2 emission outlines.

引用

页码：345 / 351

页数：7

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