Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

被引:44
作者
Gambelli, Danilo [1 ]
Alberti, Francesca [1 ]
Solfanelli, Francesco [1 ]
Vairo, Daniela [1 ]
Zanoli, Raffaele [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Politecn Marche, Via Brecce Bianche, Ancona, Italy
关键词
Advanced biofuels; Microalgae; Scenario analysis; Bayesian networks; Climate change; Sustainability; BIODIESEL PRODUCTION; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS; EXPERT ELICITATION; MICROALGAE; POLICY; OIL; TECHNOLOGY; EVOLUTION; BALANCE; EUROPE;
D O I
10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.013
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae.
引用
收藏
页码:165 / 178
页数:14
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