Skilful seasonal predictions for the European energy industry

被引：99

作者：

Clark, Robin T. ^{[1
]}

Bett, Philip E. ^{[1
]}

Thornton, Hazel E. ^{[1
]}

Scaife, Adam A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2017年 / 12卷 / 02期

关键词：

seasonal prediction; nao; energy; predictability; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; ECONOMIC VALUE; CROP YIELD; CLIMATE; VARIABILITY; FORECASTS; WEATHER; WINTER; SIMULATIONS; EXTREMES;

D O I：

10.1088/1748-9326/aa57ab

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

We assess the utility of seasonal forecasts for the energy industry by showing how recentlyestablished predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter allows predictability of near-surface wind speed and air temperature and therefore energy supply and demand respectively. Our seasonal prediction system (GloSea5) successfully reproduces the influence of the NAO on European climate, leading to skilful forecasts of wind speed and wind power and hence wind driven energy supply. Temperature is skilfully forecast using the observed temperature-NAO relationship and the NAO forecast. Using the correlation between forecast NAO and observed GB electricity demand, we demonstrate that skilful predictions of winter demand are also achievable on seasonal timescales well in advance of the season. Finally, good reliability of probabilistic forecasts of above/ below-average wind speed and temperature is also demonstrated.

引用

页数：9

共 54 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 2010, WIND ENERGY EXPLAINE

[2]

Arribas A, 2011, MON WEATHER REV, V139, P1891, DOI 10.1175/2011MWR3615.1

[3] The Representation of Atmospheric Blocking and the Associated Low-Frequency Variability in Two Seasonal Prediction Systems [J].

Athanasiadis, Panos J. ;

Bellucci, Alessio ;

Hermanson, Leon ;

Scaife, Adam A. ;

MacLachlan, Craig ;

Arribas, Alberto ;

Materia, Stefano ;

Borrelli, Andrea ;

Gualdi, Silvio .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2014, 27 (24) :9082-9100

[4]

Balmaseda M, 2010, P OCEANOBS 09 SUST O, V1

[5] The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: A case study over the UK [J].

Brayshaw, David James ;

Troccoli, Alberto ;

Fordham, Rachael ;

Methven, John .

RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2011, 36 (08) :2087-2096

[6] MULTI-SCALE PROJECTIONS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE AT THE UK MET OFFICE [J].

Buontempo, Carlo ;

Brookshaw, Anca ;

Arribas, Alberto ;

Mylne, Ken .

MANAGEMENT OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE RISK IN THE ENERGY INDUSTRY, 2010, :39-50

[7] Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe [J].

Cantelaube, P ;

Terres, JM .

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, 2005, 57 (03) :476-487

[8] Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles [J].

Challinor, AJ ;

Slingo, JM ;

Wheeler, TR ;

Doblas-Reyes, FJ .

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, 2005, 57 (03) :498-512

[9] Seasonal climate forecasts for medium-term electricity demand forecasting [J].

De Felice, Matteo ;

Alessandri, Andrea ;

Catalano, Franco .

APPLIED ENERGY, 2015, 137 :435-444

[10] The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system [J].

Dee, D. P. ;

Uppala, S. M. ;

Simmons, A. J. ;

Berrisford, P. ;

Poli, P. ;

Kobayashi, S. ;

Andrae, U. ;

Balmaseda, M. A. ;

Balsamo, G. ;

Bauer, P. ;

Bechtold, P. ;

Beljaars, A. C. M. ;

van de Berg, L. ;

Bidlot, J. ;

Bormann, N. ;

Delsol, C. ;

Dragani, R. ;

Fuentes, M. ;

Geer, A. J. ;

Haimberger, L. ;

Healy, S. B. ;

Hersbach, H. ;

Holm, E. V. ;

Isaksen, L. ;

Kallberg, P. ;

Koehler, M. ;

Matricardi, M. ;

McNally, A. P. ;

Monge-Sanz, B. M. ;

Morcrette, J. -J. ;

Park, B. -K. ;

Peubey, C. ;

de Rosnay, P. ;

Tavolato, C. ;

Thepaut, J. -N. ;

Vitart, F. .

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2011, 137 (656) :553-597

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 →