Statistical evaluation for stability studies under stress storage conditions

During the pharmaceutical development of a new drug, it is necessary to select as soon as possible the formulation with the best stability characteristics. The current International Commission for Harmonisation (ICH) regulations regarding stability testing requirements for a Registration Application provide the stress testing conditions with the aim of assessing the effect of severe conditions on the drug product. In practice, the well-known Arrhenius theory is still used to make a rapid stability prediction, to estimate a drug product shelf life during early stages of its pharmaceutical development. In this work, both the planning of a stress stability study to obtain a correct stability prediction from a temperature extrapolation and the suitable data treatment to discern the reliability of the stability results are discussed. The study was focused on the early formulation step of a very stable drug, Mitonafide (antineoplastic agent), formulated in a parenteral solution and in tablets. It was observed, for the solid system, that the extrapolated results using Arrhenius theory might be statistically good, but far from the real situation if the stability study is not designed in a correct way. The statistical data treatment and the stress-stability test proposed in this work are suitable to make a reliable stability prediction of different formulations with the same drug, within its pharmaceutical development. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.